Factfullness

by Hans Rosling

The book has two themes... First, the world is improving at a far better rate than we'd expect. Gone are the days of first-world excess vs. third-world poverty. The majority of the world lives somewhere between the two. 

Most of the world has access to electricity. More than 80% of all children are vaccinated. Since vaccines must be kept refrigerated, that means the electricity, maintenance and support to for this refrigerated network, must be healthy and world wide. 

Why don't we know this? Why do we think the world is crappier than it is? Rosling covers this...

1. Gap... Things are rarely A. vs. B. They are a continuum between A & B. What is this continuum like?

2. Negativity. We expect, and look for bad news. We don't pay attention to good news or boring news.

3. Straight lines-- We expect growth to follow straight lines. It rarely does. The curve will bend.

4. Fear-- When something scares us we over guard against us. We have to remember that Risk = Danger * Exposure. If we are not exposed to a danger, we should not trust our fear.

5. Size-- Judge things in proportion. A single number is rarely useful. What was that number last year? Two years ago? How big is that number in proportion to the rest of the problem? The rest of the world?

6. Generalization-- we put things in categories. This may not be true. What are the differences within a category? What are the similarities across category? 

7. Destiny-- Things change. Slow change is still change. Statistics from 10 years ago can be very different today.

8. Don't use a single tool to analyze your problems. Develop a toolbox.

9. Blame-- Resist pointing your finger. We stop thinking about root causes when we can blame someone. We really need to go beyond that to deeply understand a problem

10. Urgency. Things are rarely so urgent that you need to react quickly and dramatically. Take small steps. Validate.

Rosling suggests that many First world companies are missing business opportunities in the rising middle class world. The first world population is growing much more slowly than the middle-world.  

The Antidote-- happiness for people who can't stand positive thinking

By Oliver Burkeman


Burkeman is in favor of a more balanced view of happiness-- not the unbridled optimism that is so popular. Burkeman is more stoic, or Buddist.

Some points to remember

The nonjudgmental, and non attached nature of Stoicism and Buddhism can be very useful to happiness.  Bad things happen all the time, even in this world of plenty. We have to embrace them and accept them. They didn't happen because we failed, because we weren't optimistic enough.

Be careful setting goals. We don't know the full consequences of choosing a goal. Sometimes planning like a frog-- leaping from lily pad to lily pad, rather that planning way ahead to a goal is much more effective. In some extreme situations, people have given up there lives to achieve a goal, rather than accept failure.

Get over yourself. 99.9% of everything you think and do is only for yourself.

Safety is as much a feeling as it is reality. Stopping at nothing to be safe, is not safe. It results in security theater. It results in us spending our time and money on things that only make us feel safe.

Failure happens. We can learn much from failure.

We all die. We'd be better off realizing that every day, rather than hiding from it.

The Happiness Project

By Gretchen Rubin.

For one year, Rubin tried every trick, process, mental attitude and exercise that promised happiness. She was very methodical.

Some conclusions-- you become more happy by helping others being more happy, and by acting more happy yourself.

Some things I want to remember...

Spend your time out. Lost time is a lost resource. why not spend it all doing something of your own choosing? Why not spend it trying to make others happy? You may worry, that they will take advantage of you, and your generosity. That worry is not founded, especially if you surround yourself by people you love and trust

Rubin didn't meditate, but she did see the value in not being judgmental

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The Bed of Procrustes

The Bed of Procrustes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

To paraphrase Tycho, I'm fairly critical of Teleb precisely because I do love his writing, and want it to be better.

The Bed of Procrustes is a book of Taleb's aphorisms. They are smart and well written. But a whole book of them is disappointing.

I so wish this book had more depth, more meat. It's insightful for Taleb to say "never trust a man who earns a salary (or, more specifically, has a dependent source of income) – unless he is on minimum wage." But, that statement begs to start a debate, not be the witty conclusion. How should people live? Is it robust to build a society where everyone earns independent income? If so, how do we get there? If not, do we have to accept the fact that a large portion of our society, the wage earners, should be deemed untrustworthy?

Where is your deep insight Taleb? Your vision? Your philosophical leadership? The Bed of Procrustes is not worthy of you.

Taleb rightly says "a good maxim allows you to have the last word without even starting a conversation." With whole book of maxims though, a whole book of last words, you end up with thoughts that's are aways ending-- that never start.

Another minor irritation, at least for me; Taleb frequently uses 'freedom' to mean 'free from responsibilities' and not 'free to choose responsibilities' or 'free to create' The these types of freedom are very different. While one man's freedom may mean he has hours of idle time, for another man freedom means that his days are filled with the responsibilities and creations of his choosing and acceptance of there consequences.

Having said all that, I've read the book twice and I'll probably read it again.