Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure

 In his book 'Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure,' Vaclav Smil explores the complex histories of various inventions. He delves into inventions that went from being celebrated to being considered undesirable, such as leaded gasoline, DDT, and CFCs. Smil also examines inventions that were expected to dominate their respective fields but ultimately failed to do so, including airships, nuclear fission, and supersonic flight. Finally, he discusses inventions that have yet to materialize despite much anticipation, such as travel in a vacuum tube (Hyperloop), nitrogen-fixing cereals, and controlled fusion.

In his conclusion, Smil discusses the fundamentals of innovation. He argues that the rapid progress brought about by the transistor revolution, which gave rise to the belief that innovation could double at an exponential rate, is not necessarily true for all fields. For example, productivity in areas such as food supply, iron and steel manufacturing, and medical discoveries is not doubling every two years. Furthermore, there is evidence to suggest that even Moore's Law, which predicts the exponential growth of computing power, is slowing down."

Smil also addresses the challenges facing our current goal of decarbonization. He notes that we still have a long way to go, as many of the technologies needed to achieve this goal either do not yet exist or are prohibitively expensive. For example, a kilogram of jet fuel contains 40 times more energy than a kilogram of batteries, and battery technology is only improving at a rate of about 2% per year. As long as weight is a factor (battery powered airplanes?) jet fuel will win.