Saturday, May 24, 2014

AntiFragile

By Nassim Taleb

Draft of an essay...
 
I have to choose my words carefully here. There is much to dislike about Antifragile. But that misses the point. This is a very well thought out book. And the act of disagreeing with parts of it can be very clarifying. Not something you can dismiss.

I don't think the author, Taleb, is a very pleasant man. He'd rather insult and fight with those that disagree with him, than work with them to foster understanding. It makes for great writing. Though It makes me doubt how effective he'll be in getting people to believe him.

Not that he'd care. In fact he's probably scoff at me fore using the word 'effective' You are either a sucker, or you are not. Compromise and slow steps are not for people who are as clear on what they believe as Taleb.

What does Taleb believe? That some things gain from time and disorder. These are anti fragile. Other things break over time and through volatility. That sounds self evident. It's really the impact of these two statements that he dwells on.

He hates corporations and their top down control. Too many people who will say whatever it takes to keep there job. No integrity. He hates and fears people with conflicts of interest and the systems that foster them. He is disgusted by people making decisions and offering opinions when they have no skin in the game, or even worse, people who have no downside and have there poor choices paid for by other people. This latter disgust is what drives his hate of corporations. The manages can only get bonuses. If the company fails, the failure isn't paid for by the executives. Its paid for by the owners.

He has a large distrust of much modern technology, but a great respect for the process of innovation.

Smart observation-- if you sample many things randomly, on average you will sample them half way through their life. So the things most likely to be around 50 years from now, were probably around 50 years ago. Something that's only been around for a year will probably be gone in as much time.

From this he develops a great respect for the past. Things that have been around for 1000 years will probably be around for the next. Where does this leave much of modern medicine and nutrition?

One of my problems with this book is that pushes his respect of the past, and of tradition almost to the point of fear and of being unwilling to experiment and tryout new things. Taleb would point out that it can take decades to figure out if something new is safe... trans fats, driving with a cell phone. Let someone else be the guina pig.

He has a great discussion on the non-linearity of failure. We often project growth and change linearly. That's not true for most things. If you dropping a glass from 10 feet is not just 10 times worse than dropping a glass from one foot. The glass will probably be ok in the later case, it will shatter in the first. He calls the barbell effect.

For all my complaints with the book, I do want to develop the discipline to apply it's ideas to my life.

Thursday, May 8, 2014

From the web...



How does hostage negotiation get people to change their minds?

The Behavioral Change Stairway Model was developed by the FBI's hostage negotiation unit, and it shows the five steps to getting someone else to see your point of view and change what they're doing.

It's not something that only works with barricaded criminals wielding assault rifles — it applies to most any form of disagreement.

There are five steps:

1. Active Listening: Listen to their side and make them aware you're listening.

2. Empathy: You get an understanding of where they're coming from and how they feel.

3. Rapport: Empathy is what you feel. Rapport is when they feel it back. They start to trust you.

4. Influence: Now that they trust you, you've earned the right to work on problem solving with them and recommend a course of action.

5. Behavioral Change: They act. (And maybe come out with their hands up.)

The problem is, you're probably screwing it up.

What you're doing wrong

In all likelihood you usually skip the first three steps. You start at step four (Influence) and expect the other person to immediately go to step five (Behavioral Change). And that never works.

Saying "Here's why I'm right and you're wrong" might be effective if people were fundamentally rational. But they're not.

From my interview with former head of FBI international hostage negotiation, Chris Voss:

… business negotiations try to pretend that emotions don't exist. What's your best alternative to a negotiated agreement, or 'BATNA'? That's to try to be completely unemotional and rational, which is a fiction about negotiation. Human beings are incapable of being rational, regardless… So instead of pretending emotions don't exist in negotiations, hostage negotiators have actually designed an approach that takes emotions fully into account and uses them to influence situations, which is the reality of the way all negotiations go…

The most critical step in the Behavioral Change Staircase is actually the first part: Active listening. The other steps all follow from it. But most people are terrible at listening.

Here's Chris again:

If while you're making your argument, the only time the other side is silent is because they're thinking about their own argument, they've got a voice in their head that's talking to them. They're not listening to you. When they're making their argument to you, you're thinking about your argument, that's the voice in your head that's talking to you. So it's very much like dealing with a schizophrenic.

If your first objective in the negotiation, instead of making your argument, is to hear the other side out, that's the only way you can quiet the voice in the other guy's mind. But most people don't do that. They don't walk into a negotiation wanting to hear what the other side has to say. They walk into a negotiation wanting to make an argument. They don't pay attention to emotions and they don't listen.

The basics of active listening are pretty straightforward:

1. Listen to what they say. Don't interrupt, disagree, or "evaluate."

2. Nod your head, and make brief acknowledging comments like "yes" and "uh-huh."

3. Without being awkward, repeat back the gist of what they just said, from their frame of reference.

4. Inquire. Ask questions that show you've been paying attention and that move the discussion forward.

So what six techniques do FBI hostage negotiation professionals use to take it to the next level?

1. Ask open-ended questions

You don't want yes/no answers, you want them to open up.

A good open-ended question would be "Sounds like a tough deal. Tell me how it all happened." It is non-judgmental, shows interest, and is likely to lead to more information about the man's situation. A poor response would be "Do you have a gun? What kind? How many bullets do you have?" because it forces the man into one-word answers, gives the impression that the negotiator is more interested in the gun than the man, and communicates a sense of urgency that will build rather than defuse tension. [Crisis Negotiations, Fourth Edition: Managing Critical Incidents and Hostage Situations in Law Enforcement and Corrections]

2. Effective pauses

Pausing is powerful. Use it for emphasis, to encourage someone to keep talking or to defuse things when people get emotional.

Eventually, even the most emotionally overwrought subjects will find it difficult to sustain a one-sided argument, and they again will return to meaningful dialogue with negotiators. Thus, by remaining silent at the right times, negotiators actually can move the overall negotiation process forward. [Gary Noesner, author of Stalling for Time: My Life as an FBI Hostage Negotiator]

3. Minimal encouragers

Brief statements to let the person know you're listening and to keep them talking.

Even relatively simple phrases, such as "yes," "O.K.," or "I see," effectively convey that a negotiator is paying attention to the subject. These responses will encourage the subject to continue talking and gradually relinquish more control of the situation to the negotiator. [Gary Noesner]

4. Mirroring

Repeating the last word or phrase the person said to show you're listening and engaged. Yes, it's that simple — just repeat the last word or two:

For example, a subject may declare, "I'm sick and tired of being pushed around," to which the negotiator can respond, "Feel pushed, huh?" [Gary Noesner]

5. Paraphrasing

Repeating what the other person is saying back to them in your own words. This powerfully shows you really do understand and aren't merely parroting.

The idea is to really listen to what the other side is saying and feed it back to them. It's kind of a discovery process for both sides. First of all, you're trying to discover what's important to them, and secondly, you're trying to help them hear what they're saying to find out if what they are saying makes sense to them. [Former head of FBI International hostage negotiation, Chris Voss]

6. Emotional labeling

Give their feelings a name. It shows you're identifying with how they feel. Don't comment on the validity of the feelings — they could be totally crazy — but show them you understand.

A good use of emotional labeling would be "You sound pretty hurt about being left. It doesn't seem fair." because it recognizes the feelings without judging them. It is a good Additive Empathetic response because it identifies the hurt that underlies the anger the woman feels and adds the idea of justice to the actor's message, an idea that can lead to other ways of getting justice.

A poor response would be "You don't need to feel that way. If he was messing around on you, he was not worth the energy." It is judgmental. It tells the subject how not to feel. It minimizes the subject's feelings, which are a major part of who she is. It is Subtractive Empathy. [Crisis Negotiations, Fourth Edition: Managing Critical Incidents and Hostage Situations in Law Enforcement and Corrections]

Curious to learn more?

To get my exclusive full interview with former head of FBI hostage negotiation Chris Voss (where he explains the two words that tell you a negotiation is going very badly) join my free weekly newsletter

The Games People Play

By Eric Berne

People play games. The run through little tricks, follow scripts and roles that gratify them, protect their ego, allow them to avoid responsibility for looking at their difficult problems. Sometimes you will do anything to blame someone else for your problems, rather than accepting responsibility and addressing them yourself. Sometimes you will do anything for a little attention, even if it's negative attention.

It can be hard to act as an adult. To tackle your life head on.

The book feels very self evident. I'm a little worried about it's scientific bases though. None the less, it gives you much to think about.

Games People Play is an introduction to transactional analysis. It describes our three ego states-- the Parent, The Adult and the Child. All roles are healthy in the right context. Problems arise when the roles get crossed-- when you don't talk down to an Adult and treat him as a child, when you act like a child, when you need to act like an Adult.

The book contains a list of mind games that we play, some very sophisticated. For example, the game called "alcoholic" is centered around a self identified alcoholic who uses his problem to keeping acting like a child, to acquire attention from those trying to help him, and to avoid taking responsibility for anything important. Wither or not the "alcoholic" actually has a dependency on alcohol is actually a secondary question. What matters is that the alcoholic has an excuse that he can use to avoid dealing with his failings.

As follow ups, I'm going to read "I'm OK, you're OK" and "I'm Dysfunctional, You're Dysfunctional " and "Sham: How The Self-Help Movement Made America Helpless" The first to dig a little deeper into the subject. The second to balance it out. It appears the criticism is that it oversimplifies things and allows people call their troubles diseases and blame others for them. Which is an odd statement. That seams to be the exact problem that the "Games People Play" is trying to point out.





Saturday, May 3, 2014

Running away from it all Part II

In 2008 I wrote about what I'd take with me if I were to star over from nothing. I decided to revisit the list. It's changed a little.

I no longer like photography like I used to, so that's dropped off the list. I'm much more physically active that I was, so a gym is on the list, As is a beautiful park where I can hike and run.

The full list…

  1. A good place to sleep
  2. The internet and a decent laptop plus tablet
  3. toiletries, clothing
  4. The means to cook a good meal
  5. I'd live someplace near a library,
  6. someplace near a gym.
  7. someplace I can hike and run.


The Happiest Toddler on the Block

By Harvey Karp.

Someone recommended this to me as a good management or effectiveness book. There is a grain of truth to that. The core messages of "The Happiest Toddler on the Block" can apply to everyone.

  1. Fast Food Trick-- repeat back what you just heard. It shows you are paying attention. It offers the speaker an opportunity to confirm that you heard correct.
  2. It's not just what you say, it's how you say it. When you talk, match the tone and mood of the listener. Maybe a notch or too more upbeat if you are trying to lift spirits, or a notch or two more downbeat if you are trying to calm things down. This shows you are really paying attention to the mood of the conversation, and not just parroting back what you heard. It also gives the 'toddler' feedback on what their mood comes across as to others.
    For example, if the 'toddler' says "I'm Angry!" say back "You are Angry." in a slightly less irritated tone of voice. Not "Don't be angry" in a calm soonthing voice. The second approach shows that you have listened, but is dismissive of the speaker's point.
  3. Be consistent and build trust.